Exxon and Chevron Beat Q3 2026 Earnings as Refining Profits Surge; Exxon Plans $20 Billion Buyback

Exxon Mobil and Chevron both beat third-quarter profit estimates on October 30, 2026, and for the same reason: refining. With fuel margins high and oil prices up sharply over the past month, the two biggest U.S. oil companies made far more money turning crude into gasoline and diesel. Exxon also announced a $20 billion share buyback for 2027, and its profit roughly doubled from a year ago.

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Exxon Mobil's numbers

• Adjusted earnings: $17.5 billion, or $4.23 per share, above the average analyst estimate of $4.08 compiled by LSEG (Zacks had $3.90).
• Reported earnings: $15.4 billion, or $3.72 per share, roughly double the $7.5 billion ($1.76 per share) of a year earlier.
• Revenue: $113.2 billion, well above the roughly $103.0 billion Zacks analysts expected.
• Refining (downstream): adjusted earnings of $9.0 billion, up 120% from the second quarter on higher refining margins.
• Oil and gas production (upstream): adjusted earnings of $7.3 billion, down 20% from the second quarter, because Brent crude averaged less than in the previous three months.
• Production: 4.5 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, roughly flat from the second quarter.
• Cash flow: $25.7 billion from operations and $19.1 billion of free cash flow.
• Cash to shareholders: $9.4 billion in the quarter ($4.3 billion of dividends and $5.1 billion of buybacks), plus a newly announced $20 billion buyback program for 2027. The fourth-quarter dividend is $1.07 per share, payable December 10.

Bloomberg called it a record quarter for Exxon's refining business, and according to Reuters, Exxon is now earning more from refining than from pumping oil and gas for the first time in at least six years.

Chevron's numbers

• Adjusted earnings: $10.4 billion, or $5.28 per share, against the $4.89 analysts expected according to LSEG (Zacks had $4.78).
• Reported earnings: $9.9 billion, or $5.06 per share.
• Revenue: $67.8 billion, above the roughly $60.5 billion Zacks analysts expected.
• Refining: Chevron reported record crude throughput at its U.S. refineries, running at 98% of capacity. CNBC reports that refining profit jumped more than 300% to $4.9 billion.
• Production: about 3.9 million barrels per day, slightly below about 4 million a year earlier, according to CNBC, mainly because of lower international output. Chevron points out that its U.S. production is up 27% from two years ago.

A different week from big tech

It's a sharp contrast with big tech this week: Amazon and Intel both fell after their reports, as investors worried about AI spending and weaker PC demand.

Why refining is booming

Refiners earn the gap between what crude oil costs and what gasoline, diesel and jet fuel sell for. That gap, the "crack spread", has widened sharply as fuel supplies have tightened, while oil prices have climbed about 21% in a month, according to 24/7 Wall St. High refinery margins can fade quickly, though, so investors will watch whether this lasts into the fourth quarter.

My take

Two very different stories this week: tech giants are spending hundreds of billions on AI and getting punished for it, while the oil majors are printing cash and handing it back to shareholders. Exxon's $20 billion buyback for next year is a big statement of confidence. The question is how much of this quarter came from refining margins that may not stay this high. Would you rather own oil or big tech right now?

This is news, not financial advice.