Bitcoin Falls Below $80,000 Before the Fed Meeting: What's Happening and What to Watch

Bitcoin has dropped below $80,000 for the first time since mid-October. Oil, fears of new strikes on Iran and a big Federal Reserve decision on Wednesday all have traders nervous. Here's what happened, why it matters, and what to watch this week.

Last updated October 26, 2026. This is a developing story.

What happened

• Bitcoin fell to about $79,150 over the weekend, its first move below $80,000 since October 15, according to Crypto Times.
• On Monday, October 26, it's trading around $79,500 to $80,400, depending on the exchange and the time.
• That's down from about $81,000 on Saturday morning, when Arthur Hayes said he'd sold his whole $22 million trading book, and well below this month's high of about $87,400.
• It's now more than 36% below Bitcoin's all-time high of $126,080, set on October 6, 2025.

Why Bitcoin is falling

There's no single cause. Reports point to several things hitting at once:

• Iran and oil. Bitcoin fell below $80,000 as fears grew of renewed US and Israeli strikes on Iran, according to Bloomingbit. Higher oil prices push up inflation, and inflation makes interest-rate hikes more likely.
• Forced selling. When prices drop, traders who borrowed to bet on a rise get automatically sold out, which pushes the price down even more. Crypto Times reported more than $800 million in liquidations in 24 hours, mostly from those bullish bets. Other trackers report smaller numbers, so the exact figure depends on the source.
• ETF outflows. Investors pulled about $773 million from Bitcoin ETFs over Thursday and Friday, according to reports.
• Waiting for the Fed. Many traders are cutting risk before Wednesday's decision.

The Fed meeting on Wednesday

The US Federal Reserve announces its next interest-rate decision on Wednesday, October 28, at 2 p.m. Eastern. The current rate range is 3.75% to 4.00%.

• Markets mostly expect the Fed to hold rates steady: around 83% to 94% odds, depending on the source and the day.
• A smaller group is betting on a rate hike. Minutes from the September meeting showed most Fed officials think one more increase "would likely be appropriate by year end," and many forecasters now expect it in December.
• The reason is inflation, driven largely by high energy prices linked to the Middle East.

Why it matters for crypto: higher interest rates make safe investments like bonds pay more, so some money leaves risky assets like Bitcoin and altcoins. A surprise hike on Wednesday could hit crypto hard. A clear "hold" with calm comments could bring some relief.

Levels traders are watching

• Around $79,000: the nearest support, according to one analysis on crypto.news.
• Around $78,000: prediction market Kalshi is pricing a possible dip to this level this month, Crypto Times reports.
• Above $82,000: the level analysts say Bitcoin needs to win back to look stronger in the short term.

What about altcoins and Monad?

When Bitcoin drops, smaller coins usually drop harder. Ethereum is trading around $2,300, down sharply this month, and Solana is stuck near $100. MON, the Monad coin, is at about $0.021, and its next big token unlock is on November 24. I explained what that means in What is Monad (MON)?

My take

This isn't a crash yet. It's a nervous market waiting for one big decision. Oil, Iran and the Fed are things nobody in crypto controls, so I'm not making big moves before Wednesday. If you hold crypto, this is a good week to stay calm, avoid borrowing to trade, and ignore anyone shouting "buy the dip" or "sell everything." I'll update this article after the Fed decision. Where do you think Bitcoin lands by Friday?